Trump and Republicans Aim to Update Census for Political Advantage
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Recently revealed documents suggest that the Trump administration's push to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census was not merely administrative but part of a Republican strategy to disadvantage Democrats and minority voters. The documents, attributed to Thomas Hofeller, a Republican redistricting expert, argue that adding a citizenship question would benefit Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.
Contrary to administration claims that the question was necessary to enforce the Voting Rights Act, the true intention behind the proposal seems to be political in nature. Federal courts intervened to block the question, prompting the Supreme Court to review the matter currently.
Moreover, studies such as the one published in Demography predict that the inclusion of a citizenship question could lead to a decrease in the overall self-response rate, particularly impacting households with potential non-citizens. The anticipation is that there could be an 8% larger drop in self-response rates for households with non-citizens compared to those with only citizens, resulting in an estimated overall 2.2 percentage point decrease in self-response for the 2020 census.
The U.S. Decennial Census has always been a crucial aspect of American politics and governance. Political considerations often influence decisions regarding the census, from vote dilution and population policy to accuracy concerns, creation of statistical races, and the necessity for political neutrality in federal statistics. As highlighted in a paper by Kenneth Prewitt, the political implications of census data collection extend to public concerns about government intrusion and the shift towards leveraging administrative and digital data over traditional survey methods.
Looking forward to the 2020 census, the U.S. faces a myriad of challenges and considerations. A 2017 Congressional Research Service report outlines the constitutional requirement for a decennial census, emphasizing its role in determining congressional representation and federal funding distribution. The Census Bureau's plans and challenges for the upcoming census include cost-saving measures through administrative records and technology utilization, alongside calls for accurate and comprehensive data collection. Concerns regarding funding, technological readiness, and cybersecurity remain at the forefront of preparations for the 2020 census.
In conclusion, the intersection of politics and the decennial census sparks debates on the integrity and purpose of data collection processes. The ongoing scrutiny surrounding the citizenship question's inclusion underscores the broader implications of census updates and their potential impacts on political representation and resource allocation in the U.S.
最近揭露的文件顯示，川普政府在2020年人口普查中加入公民身分問題的推動，不僅僅是行政目的，而是共和黨意圖不利於民主黨和少數族裔選民策略的一部分。這些文件歸因於共和黨重劃選區專家托馬斯．霍費勒，他認為增加公民身分問題將有利於共和黨和非西語裔白人。
與政府聲稱該問題是為了執行投票權法案的說法相反，這項提議背後的真正意圖似乎具有政治性質。聯邦法院介入阻止了這個問題，促使最高法院目前審查此事。
此外，如《人口統計學》期刊發表的研究預測，加入公民身分問題可能導致整體自主回覆率下降，特別影響潛在非公民的家庭。預期非公民家庭的自主回覆率降幅將比純公民家庭高出8%，導致2020年人口普查的自主回覆整體下降2.2個百分點。
美國的十年人口普查一直是美國政治和治理的關鍵面向。政治考量經常影響人口普查的決策，從選票稀釋和人口政策到準確性疑慮、統計種族的建立，以及聯邦統計中政治中立的必要性。正如肯尼斯．普雷維特在一篇論文中強調的，人口普查資料蒐集的政治影響擴及到民眾對政府侵擾的疑慮，以及從傳統調查方法轉向行政和數位資料運用的轉變。
展望2020年的人口普查，美國面臨諸多挑戰與考量。2017年國會研究服務報告概述了十年人口普查的憲法要求，強調其在決定國會代表席次和聯邦資金分配上的角色。人口普查局對即將到來的人口普查的計畫和挑戰包括透過行政紀錄和科技運用來節省成本，以及呼籲準確而全面的資料蒐集。在籌備2020年人口普查的最前線，仍然存在對資金、技術準備和網路安全的疑慮。
總之，政治與十年人口普查的交會引發了對資料蒐集流程的完整性和目的之辯論。圍繞公民身分問題納入與否的持續審視，凸顯了人口普查更新及其對美國政治代表性和資源分配可能造成的更廣泛影響。